2023 Melbourne Cup Preview: Can Gold Trip Go Back-To-Back?
The Melbourne Cup, affectionately known as “the race that stops a nation,” is Australia’s most prestigious annual thoroughbred horse race. Conducted over a distance of 3,200 meters at Melbourne’s Flemington Racecourse, this Group 1 race for three-year-olds and over is a true test of stamina, speed, and heart. It’s a part of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival, and its rich history dates back to its inception in 1861.
The event transcends the sport of horse racing, capturing the imagination of the nation and a global audience. It’s a spectacle of fashion, culture, and sporting excellence, held on the first Tuesday of November each year and is a public holiday in the state of Victoria. The Melbourne Cup is not just a horse race; it is a 160-year-old social and cultural tradition that showcases the very best of what Australia has to offer.
The race has seen its share of legends, both equine and human. From Phar Lap to Makybe Diva, the only horse to win it three times consecutively, the Melbourne Cup has created heroes and stories that have become folklore. The handicap format of the race makes it unique, as it levels the playing field, allowing for a thrilling contest where not always the best horse on paper takes the prize, but the one that can endure and outlast the competition on the day.
As we approach another running of this historic event, the anticipation builds to see which contender will etch their name into the annals of time. Will it be a repeat victor defying the odds, or a new champion rising to claim glory? The stage is set for another chapter in the storied legacy of the Melbourne Cup.
Top Five Contenders for the 2023 Melbourne Cup
Gold Trip
Last year’s champion, Gold Trip, returns to the Melbourne Cup with a formidable record, including a recent Group 1 Turnbull Stakes victory and a strong showing in the Caulfield Cup. Carrying a weight of 58.5kg, history may not be on his side, but his affinity for Flemington and the addition of jockey James McDonald could see him overcome the odds. Despite the challenge of a weight increase, his consistent performance and proven track record make him a top contender.
Without A Fight
The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained Without A Fight has demonstrated his capability with a recent win in the Caulfield Cup. His preference for firm ground and the choice of Mark Zahra to ride him over last year’s winner are significant endorsements. Although his past performance in this race and beyond the 2800m mark has been less than stellar, his current form cannot be ignored.
Vauban
Vauban enters the race as a highly touted favorite, boasting a 50% win rate and a dominant performance in his recent outings. His ability to stay the distance, coupled with a favorable barrier draw, positions him well for success. However, his recent transition from hurdles and the quality of his competition raise questions about his ability to replicate past performances against a strong field.
Breakup
The Japanese stayer Breakup may have had an unremarkable run in the Caulfield Cup, but his impressive second-up record and proven stamina over longer distances suggest potential for
significant improvement. His performance in Japan’s prestigious Tenno Sho positions him as a horse with the pedigree to excel, though he will need to overcome a poor barrier draw and a lackluster last start.
Soulcombe
Soulcombe, trained by Chris Waller, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with his dynamic turn-of-foot. His gradual build-up in race distances leading to the Cup suggests a strategic preparation. However, his tendency for poor starts could be detrimental in a large field, and his performance in the Caulfield Cup leaves room for improvement.
These five horses each bring a unique set of strengths to the table, setting the stage for a highly competitive race. While each has their vulnerabilities, their respective wins, places, and the strategic choices of their connections make them stand out in a field of strong competitors.
Melbourne Cup Contenders Analysis: The Full Field
As the anticipation for the Melbourne Cup builds, we delve into the profiles and prospects of the top contenders. From last year’s champion to the fresh hopefuls, each horse carries a unique story into the race that stops a nation.
GOLD TRIP: The Defending Champion
Airborne with a Weighty Challenge
Gold Trip, the previous year’s victor, has not rested on his laurels, securing a G1 Turnbull Stakes win and a G1 Caulfield Cup placing. However, history is not on his side with a weight rise, and back-to-back victories are a rarity.
Prospects:
Strengths: Proven performance with a similar preparation to last year’s win.
Challenges: Carrying more weight this year, which could be a significant hurdle.
ALENQUER: The Underperformer with Potential
Seeking Redemption
Alenquer hasn’t lived up to the hype in Australia but has shown glimpses of his former glory that included toppling a Cox Plate winner.
Prospects:
Strengths: A pedigree of taking big scalps and a potential dark horse.
Challenges: Lackluster Australian performances and a need for a significant turnaround.
WITHOUT A FIGHT: The Caulfield Cup Victor
Proving His Mettle
This contender has translated his Queensland success to Melbourne, capturing the G1 Caulfield Cup.
Prospects:
Strengths: Current form and preference for firm ground.
Challenges: A dismal past performance in the Melbourne Cup and a less-than-ideal barrier draw.
BREAKUP: The Japanese Stayer
Poised for Improvement
Breakup’s mediocre Caulfield Cup showing belies his strong Japanese form, which could hint at a potential upswing.
Prospects:
Strengths: Impressive Japanese staying form and a pedigree that suggests suitability for the race.
Challenges: A poor Caulfield Cup performance and an unfavorable barrier position.
VAUBAN: The Hype Horse
A Favorite with a Point to Prove
Vauban enters the fray with a 50% win rate and a dominant Ascot performance, but questions linger over his recent hurdle races.
Prospects:
Strengths: Stamina, speed, and an ideal barrier draw.
Challenges: Transitioning from hurdles to flat racing and proving his class against top contenders.
SOULCOMBE: The Inconsistent Performer
Dynamic but Unpredictable
Soulcombe has shown brilliance but has been let down by poor starts, making his prospects uncertain.
Prospects:
Strengths: A strong turn-of-foot and a gradual build-up to the Cup.
Challenges: Inconsistency at the start and a previous defeat by stronger contenders.
ABSURDE: The Irish Challenger
A Dour Stayer with a Puncher’s Chance
Absurde’s Ebor win at York positions him as a potential surprise package, despite being outclassed by Vauban at Ascot.
Prospects:
Strengths: Stamina and preferred ground conditions.
Challenges: Needs to find extra lengths and overcome a less favorable racing style.
RIGHT YOU ARE: The Ultra-Competitor
Stepping into the Unknown
This consistent performer faces his first test beyond 2400m, raising questions about his staying ability.
Prospects:
Strengths: Competitive spirit and a strong team behind him.
Challenges: Unproven at the distance and facing superior rivals.
VOW AND DECLARE: The 2019 Champion
Seeking a Return to Glory
The veteran who triumphed four years ago is back, lighter and arguably in better form.
Prospects:
Strengths: Past winner with a weight advantage.
Challenges: Only one win in 24 starts since his Cup victory, casting doubt on his current competitiveness.
CLEVELAND: The Stayer with Stamina
A Test of Endurance
Cleveland’s ownership and stamina are positives, but his Sydney Cup defeat raises red flags.
Prospects:
Strengths: Proven endurance and favorable ground conditions.
Challenges: Jockey change and a questionable last victory raise concerns about his true form.
ASHRUN: The Seasoned Stayer
Experienced and Resilient
Ashrun returns with a lighter weight and a stable that excels in endurance races, offering a solid chance for a strong finish.
Prospects:
Strengths: A proven track record in long-distance races and a commendable performance in the 2020 Cup.
Challenges: A long absence from racing and a questionable performance in the Geelong Cup as a form reference.
DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR: The Dark Horse
Underestimated but Improving
Despite unimpressive recent form, Daqiansweet Junior has shown improvement this campaign and has a history of performing well in long-distance races.
Prospects:
Strengths: A strong finish in last year’s event and an Adelaide Cup victory over this distance.
Challenges: Recent form has been less than stellar, and stronger competitors have outperformed him.
OKITA SOUSHI: The Outsider
Unproven but Trained by a Champion
Okita Soushi comes with a less convincing form but is trained by a two-time winner of the race, which could hint at untapped potential.
Prospects:
Strengths: A win over two miles and a trainer with a history of success in this race.
Challenges: A poor showing in the Caulfield Cup and a need for significant improvement to contend.
SHERAZ: The Underdog
Struggling Form but Fit
Sheraz enters the race with concerns over form and fitness, but with a win over 3000m, there’s a glimmer of hope for a surprise performance.
Prospects:
Strengths: Experience over similar distances and peak fitness.
Challenges: A lack of winning form in Australia and recent unplaced runs.
LASTOTCHKA: The Lightweight Contender
Small but Mighty
Lastotchka, a mare with a light weight and a Group 3 win in France, could be a surprise with her forward racing style.
Prospects:
Strengths: A proven track record over long distances and a light weight to carry.
Challenges: Stronger formlines from competitors and a stable with a low strike rate in long-distance races.
MAGICAL LAGOON: The Group 1 Winner
Classy but Questionable Form
Magical Lagoon, a Group 1 winner, enters under the guidance of a master trainer but faces doubts over the relevance of her Geelong Cup performance.
Prospects:
Strengths: High-class pedigree and a significant win in her history.
Challenges: The Geelong Cup form may not be the best indicator for this race’s success.
MILITARY MISSION: The In-Form Runner
Consistent but Unproven at Distance
Military Mission arrives in consistent form but faces the unknown challenge of the 3200m distance.
Prospects:
Strengths: A string of in-form performances and a light weight.
Challenges: No experience beyond 2400m and a class difference compared to top contenders.
SERPENTINE: The Resurgent Competitor
Back in Form but Needs More
Serpentine has shown recent form improvements but must find another gear to compete with the leading horses.
Prospects:
Strengths: Improved form and a significant weight drop for this race.
Challenges: Lackluster performances at this distance in the past.
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE: The Long-Distance Hopeful
Unlucky but Enduring
Virtuous Circle has not shone this campaign but has the stamina for the two-mile journey, offering a slim chance for redemption.
Prospects:
Strengths: Potential to handle the distance and a notable performance in the Bart Cummings.
Challenges: A lack of significant wins and poor recent placings.
MORE FELONS: The Fresh Contender
New but Promising
More Felons made a notable Australian debut in the Geelong Cup, hinting at potential that could unfold in the Melbourne Cup.
Prospects:
Strengths: Impressive late speed in the Geelong Cup and room for improvement.
Challenges: Previous defeats by stronger horses and a lack of major victories.
FUTURE HISTORY: The Old-School Challenger
Seasoned but Questionable Class
Future History has been traditionally prepared for this race but faces doubts over his ability to compete at the highest level.
Prospects:
Strengths: A thorough preparation and a significant weight reduction.
Challenges: Uncertainty about his class and a crowded finish in his last major race.
INTERPRETATION: The Fit Winner
Winning Form but Stepping Up
Interpretation enters off a win but must elevate his performance to contend in a much tougher field.
Prospects:
Strengths: Winning the Bendigo Cup and excellent fitness.
Challenges: A narrow victory last start and a poor performance in last year’s Melbourne Cup.
KALAPOUR: The Fit Front-Runner
Hardworking but Limited
Kalapour secured his spot with a Lexus Stakes win, but the quality of that race and his overall form may not stack up here.
Prospects:
Strengths: Exceptional fitness and a quick back-up from his last race.
Challenges: A lackluster Lexus Stakes field and a significant step up in class required.
TRUE MARVEL: The Veteran Marathoner
Experienced but Outpaced
True Marvel is a seasoned stayer but his recent flat performances suggest he’s facing an uphill battle.
Prospects:
Strengths: A desire for the 3200m distance and a wealth of experience.
Challenges: A long time since his last win on the flat and lackluster current form.
As the thunderous applause rises from the grandstands and the nation holds its breath for the thrilling final stretch, the Melbourne Cup continues to be a pinnacle of equine competition, a testament to the spirit of the race. For those looking to be part of the action, the Victorian Betting Association (VBA) bookies offer competitive odds, ensuring you’re right in the heart of the race day excitement. Remember, while the allure of the race is intoxicating, it’s important to engage with the spectacle responsibly. So, place your bets with care, savor the pageantry, and may luck grace your chosen steed at the Melbourne Cup, the race that indeed stops a nation.
