Racing Preview: Flemington 6/7/24
Track: Soft 5 (should remain as is with the current forecast)
Rail: True the entire circuit (previous meeting was out 9M the entire)
R1- We kick off proceedings with the very smart Snowden trained I Found You down from Sydney. She justified her short quote on debut and won like a horse that is grades better than winter company. The stable is great at placing their horses and I think they are using this race to acclimatise her for the better Melbourne races in the Spring. Shinn fresh from a treble on Wednesday goes on and she will prove hard to beat.
The superbly bred Golden Warrior is the clear second pick, has won 2 from 3, and if there is a chink in the armour of the fave, then this fella will be it. The 1400 back to 1200 will ensure he is strong late down the testing straight course.
Unraced Moody/Coleman gelding is another bred in ‘in the purple’ and is a watch for the future and I expect Perfectly Good from the Hayes camp to improve on its first prep.
Backing #3 I Found You and small play #1 Golden Warrior
R2- Another shorty here in the shape of the exciting Maher trained stayer Berkshire Breeze. This former UK gelding has really come of age this time in, and with continued improvement could be a player in some of the better races later in the year. He should be very hard to beat here.
That said, Born A King (who we found at the juicy 20’s last start), is a real danger and I have him marked a lot shorter than the $12 currently on offer. He has always been a horse who needs a few runs to find his best and the way he travelled and chimed in a fortnight ago showed to me that he still has another level or two in the tank.
Duke of Hastings who has had good grounding for this and Aberfeldie Boy are hopes to fill the trifecta spots.
Backing #3 Berkshire Breeze and #1 Born A King
R3- The lightly raced boom horse Craig steps out again here and will prove difficult to beat. He possesses an electrifying turn of foot something none of his opponents here have. There is enough speed here for him to settle just off midfield and swoop down the middle of the track and the small field assists also.
I really like the win of Red Mile last start, I see him getting the box seat behind the leader and if the speed drops out of the race or Craig has an ‘off day’, then the cards might fall in his lap. At the $16 currently on offer he is worth a ticket as insurance.
In each of the first three races the faves look extremely hard to beat although there is merit in backing the danger to ensure both picks are winners.
Justadeel, who gets to a more suitable distance now is 3rd pick, and Rise At Dawn who will attempt to cross from out wide and stack them up is a rough chance. A leaders bias with the rail back in the true may play in his favour.
Backing #2 Craig and #6 Red Mile
R4- Some lovely progressive 2yo’s here with most coming out of the same race last start. I’ve plonked for the Hayes trained Jenni’s Meadow. After 3 runs back she arrives here to peak at the 1600M. She is drawn to be tucked up back on the fence midfield and Ethan Brown will give her every hope. I particularly liked her last run at 1400M, her closing 200M showed me that with a softer run and the extra 200M that she would prove extremely hard to beat here.
The inexperienced Whateley showed at his first start that he is well up to this grade, he was thrown in at the deep end and hit the lead at the 200M only to be swooped on late by horses with momentum down the middle of the course. Plenty of upside with that run and if he has taken the positives from that outing then he will prove hard to beat.
Warparty was well fancied last start and set too much of a task from back in the field, the run suggested that the step up to the mile and this race might have been the target.
Sneaky Sunrise and Pisces are obvious hopes also but I’m looking for those who are perhaps going to another level stepping out in distance.
Backing #3 Jenni’s Meadow
R5- What have we got here, a mares race as open as Myers on Boxing Day.
Electric Impulse goes in on top, she should be at peak fitness, the race shape suits, and she boasts a great record at the track and distance.
The class runner of the field Belle Savior is the obvious danger, she is racing in great heart and gets Shinn on to give her every hope.
Belle Et Riche finds it hard to win but at her best could easily account for these, I’m sure the very astute Mitchell Freedman will have her primed.
Brazen Lady is another chance in a tough race, Damian Lane knows the horse well and mares in form is a tried n tested formula.
Small play #7 Electric Impulse
R6- Steel Run is my bet of the day. This son of the Japanese sire Real Steel has been screaming out for this distance and will prove too strong for this lot. Mick Kent is a great trainer of stayers, and he has far better races than this in store for this lightly raced gelding. He will win here and could emerge as a hope in some of the better distance races later in the year.
Aztec State is my 2nd pick, he has earned his 60kgs, is racing in great heart, the 6kgs between him and Steel Run will prove critical at the end of 2500M.
Eagle Warrior is an interesting runner, maps to get a very cushy run on the fence midfield and I can see him being strong late and filling a place. He will see the trip right out.
Piggyback will be around the mark, drawn well, and gets the Maher polish, filly against the boys here worries me, but she is tough and honest.
Betting up #4 Steel Run
R7- I’ve settled on Veloce Carro here, I can see him getting a lovely smother for the first 1000M of the race and then exploding late to win. With no weight on his back, he can post impressive sectionals off a fast pace and that’s what he should get here.
Press Down is airborne at present and is the one they all have to beat; he treated an above average field at Swan Hill with contempt recently and if they don’t go as quick as expected then he will be very difficult to run down.
Astero is an interesting runner for Matty Smith, the stable has a canny knack of bringing horses down from Sydney and targeting races at big odds. He’s had a little freshen up and look for him to be flying late.
Semillon can pull out a big run and can’t be dismissed.
Backing #11 Veloce Carro with a small speck on #8 Astero
R8- Windstorm gets another chance here. He ran into a barnstorming Munhamek last time out when he looked home and that run suggested he’s back to his pre-injury form. Drawn to get a perfect run and he will in the finish somewhere.
I have Sibaaq very close to him, the race pattern went horribly against him last start and with a different set up and even luck this Neesham trained gelding will run a super race around the $16 mark.
Flash Flood peaks here 3rd up and is 2 from 4 at that stage of its preparation. Drawn perfectly in 1 and finishes in the placings 2 in every 3 starts. No reason why that won’t continue here.
Duke De Sessa is a class horse at his best and is a massive query runner, if Maher has him wound right up he might be too good for them, watch the market closely.
Backing #7 Windstorm and #6 Sibaaq
R9- The Ferrari Pharari is a clear standout here, whilst she is up in grade, this exciting daughter of American Pharoah is ready to take the next step and progress to being a metropolitan winner.
Wallenda is one from one at the 1200M and at that start accounted for the very smart The Black Cloud, a repeat of that would have him in the finish, at the $21 currently on offer he is worth a shilling or two.
Right To Party is racing in great heart this time in and loves the Flemington straight.
Fleetwood has a few tricks as evidenced last start and if he brings his best manners will be right there.
Backing #12 Pharari and specking #4 Wallenda
SUMMARY
R1-(3xx,1x)….4?,7
R2-(3xx,1x)…7&2 trifecta hopes
R3-backing 2&6…7,1
R4-3x,7,6,2
R5-7,1,4,6
R6-4xxx,1,9,3
R7-11x,7,8 knockout,5
R8-7&6..8,2??
R9-12xx,4,2,9
Best Bets
R6-4 (best of the day)
R9-12
Value Plays
R4-3
R7-8
R8-6
R9-4
Last week’s results
Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)
Bets – 12 units
Return – 8.1 units
ROI -32.5%
All Selections (1 unit – Top Tote)
Bets – 37 units
Return – 16 units (3 winners, 6 seconds)
ROI -56.75%
Good luck if you’re playing.
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