NRL Round 20 Preview By Dean McHugh 

Raiders vs Warriors Preview

Only a single point separates the Raiders from the Warriors in the NRL standings, and this one feels like a make-or-break game for both teams. Only four points separate eight teams battling it out for the final playoff spot, so every game feels like a final at this stage.

Both teams have had very similar seasons, starting well and petering off as the season progressed. The Raiders have lost their last four, and the Warriors have only won once during that same period, so it’s safe to say confidence is low in both camps. We also have a team that has been terrible on home soil against a side that has been dreadful away, so you’d have to be brave to try and pick a winner here.

Instead I’m going to opt for a tight, low scoring game and tip up the Raiders to not trouble the scoreboard often. They’ve gone under the total set here in three of their last four games, sneaking over once against a poor Tigers side. Despite their recent woes, the Warriors defence has been decent over the last two weeks and they defended the total set here comfortably. The Raiders have also gone under the mark in their previous three meetings with the Warriors.

Bet – Raiders Under 22.5 Points

Rabbitohs vs Tigers Preview

Although only two places separate these two teams in the NRL standings, it’s clear there is a gulf between them right now, something that is clearly reflected in the odds. Despite losing last week, the Rabbitohs are playing some good rugby and will expect to get back in the win column against the Tigers, who are bottom of the ladder.

So, the question is can South Sydney cover the handicap or not? Looking at the way the Tigers fell apart against Cronulla last week, my guess is yes they will cover it. In all truth, I don’t even think the Sharks were at their best last week but they didn’t have to be and still ran out winners by 52!

Prior to losing last week the Rabbitohs had covered the handicap set for this one in three of their previous four wins. That added to the fact that the Tigers have lost by 52, 12 and 34 in recent weeks makes this a straightforward pick for me. It’s also worth noting that South Sydney have covered the handicap set here on the previous three occasions they have met.

Bet – Rabbitohs -11.5 to Win

Knights vs Broncos Preview

The Broncos are in freefall right now, having lost their last six in a row. So, perhaps a trip to Newcastle is what they need to get things back on track. That’s because they have beaten the Knights on the four previous occasions the teams have met. However, only a brave (or stupid) punter would back them right now. Granted, they battled back well against the Dragons last week, but you have to wonder if St. George eased up.

But, that doesn’t mean I will be rushing out to back Newcastle either, especially after the way they got blown away by the Sea Eagles last week. I’m really struggling to pick anything with confidence in this one so I’m going to have a punt at a long shot. With both sides desperate to avoid defeat I’m going to tip them up to do so and back the draw.

Bet – Game to End a Draw 

Storm vs Roosters Preview

The Storm versus the Roosters has the potential to be one of the games of the season, and I, for one, cannot wait for this one to start. These teams have the best recent form in league as Melbourne are undefeated in their last five and the Roosters have won their previous four. You could argue the level of competition they have both faced hasn’t been the best but they have both been fairly dominant in their victories.

With very little to choose between them right now, I’m going to look back to the history of this fixture to make my selection. And that means I’m going to be tipping up the Storm, which has won the last four head-to-heads, which includes the previous two played in Melbourne. 

Bet – Storm to Win Moneyline

Panthers vs Dolphins Preview

On paper the Panthers versus the Dolphins appears to be a close contest. However, the bookmakers don’t see it that way and they have the Panthers clear favourites for this one. Granted, Penrith have been playing well, winning three of their last four but the Dolphins are certainly no mugs.

They beat the in-form Rabbitohs last week, and if you disregard their loss to the Dragons, their previous two results were decent, too, losing marginally to Melbourne and beating Cronulla. It must be said the Panthers haven’t been great at home recently either, losing two of their last three fixtures to the Dragons and the Cowboys. 

Penrith have only once covered the handicap set here in their last five, and the Dolphins have only lost by more than the handicap once in 11. Take the Dolphins with a big lead here.

Bet – Dolphins +13.5 to Win

Sea Eagles vs Titans Preview

Both of these sides are playing good rugby at present, and I assumed the odds would be a lot closer for this one. The Sea Eagles have won three of their last four, and they looked irresistible against the Knights last time out, which is why they are probably such short favourites.

However, the Titans are on a roll, having won their previous three and can’t be disregarded. In fact, as I said from the top, I expected the odds to be closer here, and I’m never one to look a gift horse in the mouth, so I’m taking the away side with the handicap here. They’ve won three of their previous four on their travels, and when they have lost away from home over the last couple of months, it hasn’t been by more than eight.

Bet – Titans +8.5 to Win

Cowboys vs Bulldogs Preview

Round 20 ends with an intriguing match between two in-form teams as the Cowboys battle the Bulldogs in Townsville. If we disregard their loss to the Warriors a few weeks back, the Cowboys have been arguably the best side in the NRL since the end of May. They’ve won five of their last seven, which includes defeating the likes of the Rabbitohs, Roosters and most recently the Panthers in Penrith. 

The Bulldogs haven’t beaten quite as high a calibre opponents in recent weeks, but they have still picked up wins in five of their last six matches, and they have their eyes on a top-four spot. What puts me off backing either team is their recent dreadful home and away form. New Queensland have lost four of their last five at home, and the Bulldogs have only picked up one win on their travels all season. Given this information and how closely matched these teams have been, I think this could be a tight contest, and therefore, I’m going to tip up under the total set. 

Bet – Under 47.5 Points

Bet of the Week – Rabbitohs -11.5 to Win (Versus Tigers)

Value of the Week – Raiders Under 22.5 Points (Versus Warriors)