Mick’s Melbourne Flemington Mail – Sat 22nd

Flemington 22/6/24

Track: Currently Soft 5 (Thursday)

Rail: Out 11M entire circuit 

R1 – The Stokes trained Regal Lover showed plenty of ability on debut at Pakenham, the step out to 1400m suits as a progression for this son of Dundeel.

Last start winner Sneaky Sunrise is the obvious danger with all 3 career runs having plenty of merit, she maps to sit off the speed and has won at the track/distance.

Warparty has shown promise in each of its starts and has upside, it could be the knockout here.

The unraced Suntora jumped out well recently and should be respected.

Backing Regal Lover (6)

R2 – Waller holds the key here with a couple that don’t have much between them in my numbers, that said there’s a huge disparity in price.

I’ve got the fave Mirzann on top, drawn to get a pea run and I’m tipping him to peak at his 4th run in. He is only marginally in front of Born A King, who despite having three duck heads against his name from his last three runs this time in, is now rock hard fit, and boasts an outstanding record when forth up in a prep.

Other hopes to Lionel who was too bad to be true last start and has been freshened, and Letsrollthedice who gets Shinn, a cushy barrier and was close in a harder race recently.

Backing Mirzann (11) and Born A King (3)

R3 – The very promising Craig goes out on top here albeit at a very short price. His numbers returned when winning 2 starts back were that of a horse better than 3yo winter handicap.

This is a reasonably shallow race, but I won’t be taking odds on. 

Rise At Dawn is the obvious danger, his record of 4 wins from 7 starts shows he has better than average ability.

Things fall away a bit from those two, with Red Galaxy a trifecta hope and Matusalem can improve on a drier deck.

May back Craig (5) if it gets to $2.

R4 – WOW, this is the most open mares race you could imagine. 

The in-form Episodic is on top for several reasons, she is in form, races well at 1400m, and the Clarken/O’Shea team place their horses fabulously. She is only just on top of Starlight Scope who is mapped to get a soft lead and is now hard fit with a good record at this stage of her prep.

Electric Impulse is a handy mare on her day and Frumos is ready to improve.

Backing Episodic (11) and Starlight Scope (2)

R5 – The explosive finishing Veloce Carro is my best bet on the day and should be too good for these.

I see him tucked up behind them and unleashing his trademark acceleration to give them a cold at the 100m mark.

Extremely Lucky is honest, gets Shinn on, and can figure.

The injury plagued Inundation is good enough on his best efforts, although I’d like to see race day improvement before I can back him. Ashford Street is racing well and can fill a placing.

Betting up on Veloce Carro (9)

R6 – The lightly raced and well performed Windstorm backs up here after a great run against the bias last Saturday. A winner of 7 races from only 16 starts demonstrates that he has obvious ability and I’m confident the Bedggood team have him over the issues that have limited his race day appearances.

Joe Pride brings King Of The Castle down from Sydney and engages Shinn to steer, this fella has been prepped beautifully for the step up to the mile.

One of these two will win.

Sibaaq who flies 4th run in and the classy Munhamek can go into the exotics.

Backing Windstorm (8) and King Of The Castle (6)

R7 – In a race of several angles I’ve got the resuming Tobaysure as my best value play of the day. This fella has never missed a place first up, the 1400m suits perfectly fresh, and he gets the impressive Thomas Stockdale on to ensure he is given every chance.

I’ve got another at big odds in as the danger, the Maher trained Kettle Hill. There is abundant speed in this race, and I see Kettle Hill storming down the middle of the track late.

Elouyou is racing in great heart this time in and has been unlucky not to post a win with 3 meritorious seconds and can’t be dismissed.

Georgie Get Mad is racing in great heart for the in-form Denis Pagan, draws favourably can be in the finish.

Backing Tobaysure (7) and Kettle Hill (2)

R8 – Lady In Pink is dead set airborne at present and I can’t see any reason why she can’t win again. Her last win was superb, sat wide and looked vulnerable but showed a touch of class to overcome those obstacles and win easily in the end. She only rises 1kg after Jaylah Kennedy’s claim and to my eye is well in.

The lightly raced Steel Run is the main opposition, this filly is showing plenty of ability although the big query here is what they do from the barrier. She doesn’t want to be giving too big a start like last time.

Another lightly raced filly from the Moody/Coleman camp, My Xanadu, is drawn to get a peach of a run and can figure.

Boga Legend is another who maps to get a few favours and goes in also.

Good bet Lady In Pink (1)

R9 – We finish the day off with a dash down the straight and with plenty of pace on I expect Oak Hill to get a nice smother and unleash late to win.

I love the booking of Shinn here and at around $6 is a bet to nothing each way.

The Pride team produces another visitor here in the shape of The Black Cloud, ultra-consistent, will lead these a merry dance down the outside rail, and if they allow her any soft sectionals mid race then they may pay the price.

Apparatus is next best; never runs a bad race and it’s win last start was franked recently.

Prinzerro is forth pick, returned with a solid run first up where he attracted plenty of money which suggests the stable have him in great order. 

Backing Oak Hill (1)

SUMMARY

R1-6, 4, 10, 14

R2-11x & 3x Value… 8, 1

R3-5xx, 1, 8, 6

R4-11x & 2x…9, 4

R5-9xxx Best of the day, 3, 10, 1

R6-8x & 6x….4, 1

R7-7x Value & 2x, 18, 14

R8-1xxx, 6, 9, 14

R9-1xx Value, 2, 9, 10

Best Bets

R5-9 Veloce Carro (Best of the Day)

R8-1 Lady In Pink

Best Value

R2-3 Born A King

R7-7 Tobaysure

R9-1 Oak Hill 

Last week’s results

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 9 units

Return – 10.4 units

Profit on turnover +15.55%

All Selections (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 33 units

Return – 37 units

Profit on turnover +12.12%