Flemington Racing Preview – July 20

Track: Heavy 8 (15 ml expected before race time, expect a downgrade)

Rail: Out 3M the entire (previously true the entire)

R1 – We open the card with a 2yo race with many of them seeing a middle-distance trip for the first time.

There’s not too much between the 2 faves, Stay Silent and Politely Dun, with the filly Suntora right there also. All 3 are coming out of the Jenni’s Meadow race here a fortnight ago.

Politely Dun is on top, was a very nice effort last start when not overly extended. He’s by the wonderful sire in Dundeel, is drawn nicely to sit midfield with cover and a jockey upgrade with Lane going on.

Suntora is the danger, she is bred to get the trip, wasn’t fully extended last start, and meets Politely Dun 2kgs better off albeit there was 1.3L between them last start.

Stay Silent has stepped up in distance each start and 1800m will suit, and Red Aces was sound at its only start and is bred for the journey.

Backing #2 Politely Dun, saving #7 Suntora

R2 – Le Zebra is the clear top pick for me here, fourth run in has it cherry ripe for the trip, will map perfectly and the conditions suit. He showed last run in that he’s ready to peak now.

My Rocco Fella can run a bold race here at double figure odds, he was a little plain last start although there were a few excuses, his first two runs this time in had merit and a return to that form will put him in play here.

Subrising is racing well, gets Kah and a handy barrier and the wet track will suit.

Orion Hunter is flying on the synthetic and if he can transfer those efforts to the grass then he is a definite hope.

Backing #2 Le Zebra

R3 – First Settler is the on top pick here after a fabulous debut run when winning at Caulfield, he won like a very good horse, and he finds a moderate lot here and he should go on with it.

That said, Landmark has been ultra-impressive at his two runs this time in and I’ve got him marked a third of the price currently on offer, so I must be on him at the $23.

Scampi resumes and is a horse of obvious ability, there is a touch of the unknown about him, and a good showing won’t surprise.

Zestiman also goes in first up, his sectionals when winning were very good and a repeat will have him in the money.

Backing #2 First Settler and #3 Landmark

R4 – Arqana gets lots of ticks here, is hard fit, maps well, conditions suit, stable is flying, and gets in very well with Jaylah Kennedy’s claim.

Colombe D’or is the danger, she’s had excuses at all of her runs this time in, gets in with a feather weight and loves heavy tracks. At the $16 on offer is certainly worth having a ticket on.

Korobeiniki is racing well and can figure as can Cindy Falls.

Backing #8 Arqana and #10 Colombe D’or

R5 – This is a race in two to my eye, the in form Lovazou, and the last start winner Great Maximus.

Lovazou showed last start that she is in career best form and won with something in hand last start.

Great Maximus beat an average lot last start in Adelaide, but it was the way he did it that impressed me. He loves wet ground and Team Jolly have a good record when bringing them over for a kill.

Namesake and Regal Zeus have had fitness improvement runs this time in and can improve enough to figure in the placings here.

Backing #5 Lovazou and #7 Great Maximus

R6 – South of Houston is my best value bet on the card, this ultra-consistent mare is unbeaten 2nd up, loves soft ground, gets Kah on, and I see here racing up on the speed and being very hard to beat.

Jedibeel out of the Widdup stable comes down from Sydney in superb form, he was extremely brave last start and grows a leg on wet ground.

Baraqiel is unbeaten in his 4 starts and whilst he faces his toughest test, he can’t be denied, my only query with him is 5 starts in his first prep which is a tall order for any horse.

Legio Ten rounds out my picks here, he looked like he was back to his best last start and excels on soft ground.

Backing #15 South of Houston

R7 – After going through this race multiple times I can only find one horse with plenty of positives and very few negatives, that horse is Speycaster and he is my best bet on the program.

A last start dominant win on a heavy track at Rosehill holds him in great stead to be winning this, and the step up to 2800M should suit perfectly. He is beautifully bred along stout staying lines, gets Lane to ride, draws perfectly to be positioned positively and I can’t find a danger. At the $3 currently on offer he is over the odds.

Hit The Road Jack returned to form last start, he is a plodding type who goes through the ground and will get the distance.

Port Guillaume is another who will get the distance and likes the conditions as does Maher trained Alakahan who comes back from a jumps campaign and will be thereabouts.

Betting up on #3 Speycaster

R8 – A tough race here and I’ve narrowed it down to two primary chances, Wyclif and Cadmus.

Wyclif returned to his best last start at Caulfield, and he will again prove hard to beat, he gets in under the limit after Gaudray’s claim and being drawn out wont be a concern as they will go back and come with a run late.

Cadmus is the one they will all have to beat; he is an improving and lightly raced middle distance horse that will also settle off them and come around them late.

Mr Waterville is a horse I have a reasonable opinion of, he is second up where he has raced ok before at this stage of the prep and is bred to love the heavy track.

Normandy Bridge has had excuses at its past few runs, has been freshened for this, and at its best can figure.

Backing #7 Wyclif and #6 Cadmus

R9 – The lucky last and I’m hoping the Waller juggernaut rolls on with a $21 chance in Waverider Buoy. Three runs in and back to 1000M suits this Nicconi mare, she will settle off them and come down the outside late, hopefully storming over the top to win.

The danger is Luna Cat who is racing very well, has never missed a place at this stage of her campaign and has excellent soft track credentials. She maps to be in the right place to be in the finish and drops in class off her last start.

Beast Mode, like Luna Cat, is from the powerful Hayes camp, he posted a nice win last start, gets Shinn on, and will give a great sight.

Big Me returns from Hong Kong off a very long break and is a huge query, on his best numbers he would win this, and any market support should be respected.

Backing #7 Waverider Buoy and #4 Luna Cat

SUMMARY

R1- 2,7,1,3

R2- 2xx,10,3,1

R3- 2x,3,5,1

R4- 8&10..7,2

R5- 5&7…..1,2

R6- 15xx,4,6,9

R7- 3xxx,5,4,8

R8- 7,6,11,5

R9- 7,4,1,16

Best Bets

R2-2

R7-3 best of the day

Value Plays

R6-15

R9-7

Last week’s results

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 9 units

Return – 13.7 units

ROI  +52.22%

All Selections (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 33 units

Return – 45.6 units

ROI +38.18%

Best of luck if you’re playing.