Caulfield 29/6/24

Track: Good 4 Friday (high chance of a downgrade Saturday)

Rail: Out 12M entire circuit

 

R1- Almost impossible to get a confident angle on the opener.

The well-bred Supervise, runner up on debut (good gap to 3rd) from the Price/Kent yard is my top selection. Natural improvement will see it go close here.

Chances also to Landmark who won well first up at the provincials and the consistent Blue Renegade.

Of the unraced, a big watch on the highly priced First Settler ($750K)

Small play #6 Supervise

 

R2- A good quality mares race here and I’m keen on the first upper Jennipending. She will need a little luck as she will get back but I’m banking on decent speed and her getting over the top of them late. Happy to have a play at double figure odds.

The Waller trained Waverider Buoy arrives here 2nd up from Sydney, is drawn to get the pea run and is ready to win.

Miss Icelandic, who is having her first start for the Bedggood camp, flies fresh, has excellent stats at the course and distance and is a chance.

As is the toppy Mrs Chrissie who is racing in career best form and will benefit from Gaudray’s claim.

Backing #10 Jennipending 1unit x 3unit play

 

R3- In a race seemingly devoid of pace I’m keen on Golden Crusader who can control things from the front. He boasts 2 wins from 4 outings when 3rd up, and Celine Gaudray has a fabulous affinity with him.

Gregolima was luckless last start, is ready to peak, he maps to sit just off them, and will relish the 2kg claim of Tatum Bull’s.

Matron Bullwinkle can win on her best form, should be cherry ripe now, but will need a few favours from the barrier.

Trosettee has been racing well although he has been out of the winner’s circle for some time now.

Backing #5 Golden Crusader, saving #1 Gregolimo

 

R4- The Patrick Payne trained Valley King comes out just on top for me here. Forget his last run where he choked down and he has shown enough previously to suggest he can win this. He’s been back to the trials to test out his gear change and I see him being right in the finish.

Torranzino is the danger, he loves the track and distance, has drawn to get a soft run and will get every chance late with the outstanding Micky Dee on board.

Chandon Burj has had two fitness runs at the mile, steps out to the 2000m and flies 3rd, could be the knockout at odds.

Desperado rounds out the chances, is drawn to get a perfect run and the trainer/jockey combo is lethal at times.

Backing #12 Valley King

 

R5- Last start winner Bossy Nic looks likely here, that run proved the 1200m is her sweet spot and the set up here plays perfectly into her hands. Lane goes back on, and she will be the testing material.

The lightly raced and promising Unconquerable will get the run of the race from barrier 2, was brave last start down the straight and I believe she will be better suited around the circle here.

Untouchable Legend, down from Sydney and in the Hawkes yard, who has had her share of problems in her brief career, could improve markedly, and any betting moves at huge odds should be noted.

The resuming Sheva is also a chance albeit the barrier is a concern.

Backing #1 Bossy Nic & #10 Unconquerable (may speck #11 Untouchable Legend if there is market support).

R6- In a very open race I’ve landed on the ironically named The Open. This lightly raced son of Deep Field has won 4 times from its brief 5 start career and looks like a horse on the rise. Perfectly drawn to sit just off them and finish too strongly.

Extratwo was close in a much harder race last time out and represents value at $17, she will need a good steer from the barrier but at the odds is worth a saver.

Why Worry is another who will be around the finish, he returned well recently, and the jockey/trainer combo is one worth noting.

The Godolphin trained Jewellery is a very honest mare, drawn awkwardly and will need luck, although she never runs a bad race.

Backing #11 The Open and saving on #4 Extratwo and #2 Why Worry

R7- The super impressive Miss Roumbini is my best bet on the program. Her last start victory stamped her as an above average filly, and I believe she is destined for better races than the class she faces here. Ethan Brown has a great understanding of her, and the Price/Kent team has her flying.

Electrona is a lovely, well-bred filly who won well first up and is the danger if there is one.

The reliable Valois and the favourites stablemate, Regal Might can fill the placings.

Betting up on #10 Miss Roumbini

R8- Fleetwood is unbeaten this prep and I can’t see any reason why he won’t continue his winning way here. Last start he accounted for The Black Cloud, and we saw what she did to them last Saturday. The Cummings/Lane combo is a winning recipe also.

The resuming Amigo should get a great run from its draw. Last time in was very competitive against some smart opposition and I think he will be right in the finish here.

Famosa has plenty of scope and the stable has a decent opinion of him. Whist others have better exposed form, I expect that he is going to be a nice horse moving forward.

Gitalong has better than average fresh form and can also figure although the sticky gate is against him.

Backing #1 Fleetwood

 

R9- I’m hoping the first emergency Wineglass Bay from the Waller stable gets a run here, he is ready to improve hugely and at the $27 currently on offer is a great each way play. He is above average at his best, has had a few excuses in his last few runs, and I’ve got him peaking with his fitness when next produced.

Milford is another here that has produced excellent numbers in very good class races during his career. Last start ran into a heap of trouble at a crucial stage and that run had plenty of merit.

Smokin’ Romans is getting on a bit but has performed at the highest level during his career and is cherry ripe now. He will get in nicely after Ryan Houston’s 3kg allowance.

Foujita San is racing in great heart and can figure with luck from the barrier.

Backing #14 Wineglass Bay each way and #3 Milford

R10- Chorlton Lane has returned in rare form, his 2 wins this time in have shown that he has gone to a new level. I can’t see any reason why he doesn’t make it 3 from 3.

St Lawrence maps to be closer this time from the draw and is the obvious danger. He is thrown in at the weights after the claim and is the obvious danger.

Mr Waterville presents here first up and at mammoth odds and could be a knockout chance.

Regardsmaree is another outsider that isn’t hopeless.

Backing #6 Chorlton Lane

 

SUMMARY

R1-6,3,1, 9???

R2-10ew,6,5,1

R3-5,1,10,4

R4- 12,13,11,5

R5- 1,10,11,4

R6- 11,4,2,14

R7- 10xxx,12,3,13

R8- 1,10,15,5

R9- 14ew,3,1,9

R10- 6x,8,7,11

Best Bets

R7-10 (best of the day)

R10-6

 

Value Plays

R2-10

R9-14

 

Last week’s results

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 12 units

Return – 22.7 units

Profit on turnover +89.17%

 

All Selections (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 34 units

Return – 37.9 units

Profit on turnover +11.47%

 

Good luck if you’re playing!!