AFL ROUND 23 PREVIEW & TIPS
Essendon v Sydney, Marvel Stadium
Essendon’s season hangs by a thread heading into the penultimate round as they take on league leaders Sydney on Friday night at Marvel Stadium. The Bombers’ wastefulness in front of goal came back to bite them last weekend against Gold Coast after the Suns went from the clouds to record their first win as the away team this season, courtesy of a Mac Andrew goal after the siren. It left Brad Scott’s side in 10th and two points outside the top eight instead of sitting in seventh heading into this weekend’s contest, where they essentially have to win to ensure their finals hopes remain alive heading into the final round. Scott will be forced into at least one change with Nik Cox ruled out with a concussion, which may pave the way for Dyson Heppell to play one final game in front of his home fans after he announced his retirement. Their opponents, Sydney, turned around their stuttering run of form with a comeback win over Collingwood at the SCG. Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Luke Parker were instrumental in turning around their final quarter deficit as the Swans retained their position atop the ladder this weekend. They are set to regain Lewis Melican this weekend, freeing Logan McDonald to return to attack this week. This matchup has a history of being tightly fought and entertaining contests, and the meeting this year was no exception as the Swans kicked away late to come away with a 30-point win at home.
TIP: Sydney by 11 points, Isaac Heeney to have 25+ disposals
Gold Coast v Melbourne, People First Stadium
Gold Coast will be looking to carry the momentum garnered from their first win as an away side this year when they return home to face Melbourne at People First Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Suns secured a stirring victory over Essendon last week thanks to an after-the-siren goal from Mac Andrew, ending their long wait for a win on the road. Damien Hardwick’s side showed tremendous poise to come away with the four points, as their accuracy in front of goal proved to be the difference between the two teams, especially when the game was hanging in the balance. Hardwick may turn to star midfielder Touk Miller for this Saturday’s contest as the Sun has recovered from a wrist injury. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s season is effectively over after a two-point loss to Port Adelaide, which resigned them to their fourth consecutive defeat. Like the Suns, they sit eight points outside the top eight with two games remaining but have a vastly inferior percentage to the eighth-placed Hawthorn and the seventh-placed Western Bulldogs, who they can mathematically jump on the ladder. The Demons have officially shut down Clayton Oliver for the season as he requires surgery on his hand, meaning Simon Goodwin will be forced into at least one change. On top of that, Melbourne has been in the headlines due to reports of Christian Petracca being unhappy at the club, while Alex Neal-Bullen has requested a trade back home to South Australia due to family reasons. Melbourne have won their last 11 meetings against the Suns, with their previous defeat against Gold Coast coming back in 2014.
TIP: Gold Coast by 20 points, Ben King has multiple goals
GWS v Fremantle, Engie Stadium
GWS will look one step closer to locking in a top-four berth when they face fellow finals contender Fremantle, who are desperate to return to the winners list. The Giants came from behind to secure an incredible victory over the red-hot Brisbane Lions at the Gabba last week, kicking six final quarter goals to one to end their nine-game winning streak. GWS, on the other hand, are now unbeaten in six straight games and are in a great position to secure a place in the top four and a home qualifying final. Jesse Hogan looks at the odds of winning the Coleman Medal after kicking three goals over the weekend. Another strong performance will put him in a great position to lock away his maiden medal. Adam Kingsley’s side should welcome back both Kieren Briggs and Stephen Coniglio this weekend, bolstering their midfield significantly ahead of the clash with the Dockers. Fremantle, meanwhile, are in a precarious position heading into this weekend’s clash after yet another disappointing final quarter fadeaway against Geelong, which saw them fall to a second straight defeat. The Dockers are now only two points inside the top eight and need to win to avoid putting extra pressure on themselves heading into the final round. It could also regain Josh Treacy, Michael Walters, and Sean Darcy this week, which would significantly boost Justin Longmuir’s side. A win would secure their spot in the top eight and bolster their chances of hosting a final in Perth, showcasing just how important this weekend’s contest is for Freo.
TIP: GWS by 15 points, Jesse Hogan to kick multiple goals.
Collingwood v Brisbane, MCG
Collingwood’s Premiership defence is all but over, but they can keep their slim hopes of playing in September when they take on Brisbane Lions in a Grand Final rematch at the MCG. The Magpies’ last quarter fadeaways came back to bite them last week, as they surrendered a late lead against Sydney at the SCG, falling to an agonising defeat on the road. A win last week would have had Collingwood equal with the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton – in seventh, eighth and ninth on the ladder – heading into this weekend. However, the Pies aren’t giving up the ghost of playing finals just yet, and a win over the Lions, plus some help, would keep them in the hunt heading into the final round. The Lions are also looking to get back to winning ways this week after giving up a big lead of their own against GWS. The loss provided a massive blow to their top-four hopes, but a win would help their chances of jumping back in heading into the final round. If that wasn’t enough motivation, the Lions would love to drive the nail in the Magpies’ coffin after last year’s Grand Final heartbreak. Brisbane could regain Eric Hipwood ahead of the contest at the ‘G, but there’s a chance he could be swung into defence to help their depleted back-line should he return. Collingwood won the reverse fixture at the Gabba earlier this year, a game where both teams were 0-3 going into the contest. Meanwhile, Brisbane has only won two of their last 17 matches at the MCG but did defeat Melbourne in their previous outing at the home of football earlier this season.
TIP: Collingwood by 5 points, Nick Daicos to have 30+ disposals
Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
The second Showdown of the season is this weekend as Port Adelaide will look to edge closer to locking in a top-four berth against Adelaide. Port bolstered their chances of hosting a qualifying final with a tight victory over Melbourne at the MCG, which extended their winning run to four straight matches. Ken Hinkley’s side had to dig deep to come away with the four points against the Demons and were led brilliantly by Jason Horne-Francis, who booted two goals to go with 28 disposals. They now sit in second, a percentage precise of the sides just below them, GWS and Geelong and two points ahead of the Brisbane Lions – who are in fifth. However, they will need to turn around their Showdown hoodoo, having lost each of their last three meetings against Adelaide, who is hoping to play spoiler for the Power. Adelaide already dashed the Western Bulldogs’ top-four hopes with a resounding 39-point win at home. Despite missing finals for a seventh straight season, Adelaide would love nothing more than to not only hurt Port’s chances of a top-four finish but complete the double, having already beaten them by 30 points back in Round 9. The Crows have beaten the Power by an average of 36 points in their last three meetings and won’t be daunted by an in-form Port team, who will be without Todd Marshall (concussion) but may regain Mitch Georgiades from a quad injury. It’s fair to say that there will be no walk in the park for the Power, but they need to win to garner as much momentum as possible heading into the finals.
TIP: Port Adelaide by 3 points, Zak Butters to win the Showdown Medal
St Kilda v Geelong, Marvel Stadium
Geelong will be looking to garner more momentum heading into the finals when they take on St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. The Cats recorded a stirring 11-point win on the road against Fremantle last week to jump back into the top four heading into the season’s final fortnight. Chris Scott’s side have won each of their previous three matches and are within touching distance of securing a place in the qualifying finals if they can take care of business against both the Saints and West Coast in their last two games of the home and away season. Geelong will need to make at least one change with Tanner Bruhn entering concussion protocols, which could open the door for Gary Rohan to return after being a late withdrawal on Saturday. On the other hand, St Kilda will be looking to end the season on a high note, with finals now out of the picture. The Saints comfortably beat bottom-placed Richmond last week to record their ninth win of the season and can have a significant say on the final eight in their final two matches against both the Cats and Carlton. Ross Lyon’s side pushed Geelong to the limit back in Round 1 at GMHBA Stadium, going down by eight points and beating the Cats at the same venue last season by 33 points, which was Geelong’s previous trip to play at the Docklands.
TIP: Geelong by 25 points, Jeremy Cameron to kick multiple goals
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
Western Bulldogs will be chomping to get back on the winner’s list this week after a shock defeat to Adelaide when they host North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium. The Dogs – who were in red-hot form heading into last week’s clash with the Crows – went down by 39 points at Adelaide Oval, which not only dented their top-four hopes but kept them in the mix to potentially miss the finals with only percentage separating them from ninth-placed Carlton. Luke Beveridge hinted at needing to make some changes this week with Jack Macrae, Ryley Sanders and Harvey Gallagher all in the mix to return, while Tim English will miss due to an ankle injury. They take on the 17th-placed Kangaroos, who surrendered a great chance to record rare consecutive wins last weekend, going by five points against West Coast. The Roos led by as much as 35 points in the third quarter before a second-half avalanche of goals from the Eagles turned the tide against Alastair Clarkson’s side. Despite the loss, it’s been a promising end to the season for the Kangaroos, who are poised to avoid winning the spoon and won’t be an easy beat for the Bulldogs on Sunday. However, they are sweating on the fitness of young gun Harry Sheezel (ankle), who should regain George Wardlaw after sitting out the last two weeks with a concussion. The Bulldogs won the earlier meeting this season by 17 points back in Round 17 and have been victorious in the previous six matchups, with their previous defeat against the Roos coming back in 2019.
TIP: Western Bulldogs by 30 points, Marcus Bontempelli to have 25+ disposals
Hawthorn v Richmond, MCG
The Box Office Hawks are coming and can all but lock in a finals berth when they take on bottom-placed Richmond at the MCG. Hawthorn returned to the winner’s list in style, demolishing Carlton in a quasi-elimination Final by 74 points, which saw them jump into the top eight heading into the season’s final fortnight. It’s been an unbelievable turnaround from the Hawks, who started the season 0-5 and now look set to play finals football for the first time since 2018 if they can handle business against the bottom two sides – the Tigers and North Melbourne – in the coming fortnight. The red-hot Hawks could welcome back Changkuoth Jiath this week after he was a late withdrawal with calf soreness. On the other hand, Richmond is staring down the barrel of winning their first wooden spoon since 2007 after falling to yet another defeat against St Kilda. They go in with a puncher’s chance to knock off the Hawks this week and already fell to defeat against Hawthorn this season when they went down in Dustin Martin’s 300th game by 49 points.
TIP: Hawthorn by 45 points, Massimo D’Ambrosio to have 25+ disposals
West Coast Eagles v Carlton, Optus Stadium
Carlton’s season is hanging by a thread as they head west to take on the West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium on Sunday evening. The Blues have gone from 2nd on the ladder and a Premiership contender to ninth in four weeks after three defeats. The worst of those was a 74-point thrashing against Hawthorn last week, which has hurt their finals chances significantly heading into the final fortnight. To make matters worse, the Blues are the walking wounded, with six more players joining their 17-player strong injury list, which now includes star key forward duo Charlie Curnow (ankle) and Harry McKay (quad). At the same time, Adam Saad and Jack Martin are also sidelined with hamstring injuries, along with Lachie Fogarty (collarbone) and Jordan Boyd (adductor). Michael Voss will have to find answers, particularly up-forward, with Curnow and McKay missing for the west trip. The duo have scored 103 of their 291 goals this season, showcasing just how important they are to their side, with much of the scoring onus falling to Matthew Owies and whoever Voss decides to throw up forward in a must-win game for the Blues. Their opponents, West Coast, go into the contest with confidence after back-to-back wins over Gold Coast and North Melbourne. The Eagles have been rejuvenated under caretaker coach Jarrad Schofield and would be hoping to farewell star midfielder Andrew Gaff with a victory after he announced his retirement last week. A win in this fixture looked like a formality for the Blues only a matter of weeks ago. It seems far from a certainty against a side they have beaten by an average of 80 points in their last three meetings.
TIP: West Coast by 10 points, Oscar Allen to kick multiple goals